Prof. Glenn Shafer 講演



演題:The empirical aspect of probability, from Jakob Bernoulli to the 
efficient market hypothesis

概要:A given event with small or zero probability will not happen.  This
principle is the bridge that connects the mathematics of probability with the
real world.  Jakob Bernoulli understood the principle 300 years ago, and his
insight was repeated and emphasized by many later mathematicians, including 
Augustin Cournot, Alexander Chuprov, Jacques Hadamard, Emile Borel, and even 
Andrei Kolmogorov.  After Joe Doob\'s work on stochastic processes, 
mathematicians lost sight of the principle.  But it has re-emerged in finance 
theory as the efficient market hypothesis: an investor cannot become infinitely 
rich without risking bankruptcy.  (This lecture is designed for a broad academic 
audience, with no background in mathematics, statistics, or finance.)